Starmer Has Nobody Left To Appease

It's fitting that Starmer had his Chamberlain moment on his way to appease the oil & gas lobby at the deeply flawed COP summit in Azerbaijan (of all places). Asked to choose between Trump and the EU in the imminent trade war, he preferred not to upset the vengeful, malignant narcissist who's sparked it, by waving the flimsy, blank sheet of paper that every British PM claims to contain the text describing 'the special relationship'.

It would be kinda sweet if Starmer were to genuinely think that Trump will be looking after Brexit Britain while allowing Putin to expand Russian territory, arch conspiracy theorist RFK Jr to cancel the US vaccine program and demanding that Elon 'Space Cadet' Musk pull a $2 trillion rug from under a population that relies on the world's largest outright public spending program, including government-funded free school meals, subsidised mortgages and business loans and much, much more. 

But I suspect Starmer is simply pretending to be that dumb, because that's what most people seem to want these days.

Meanwhile, yet another governor of the Bank of England has urged Britain's politicians to unite with its biggest market, when there's no sign of any political courage to do so in the face of our own local Trumpian mob.

How many more Prime Ministers the UK economy must burn through before Reality creates an opportunity for one of them to claim hero status by leading what's left of the country back into the Single Market and Customs Union remains to be seen, but... 

Next!

  

Will We Ever Tire Of The Vulgar, Prurient and Dumb?

The US Presidential election results have confirmed a trend that first surfaced in television and has spread into the social media and politics.

“Television is the way it is simply because people tend to be extremely similar in their vulgar and prurient and dumb interests and wildly different in their refined and aesthetic and noble interests.” David Foster Wallace, 1993

At scale, we humans unite at 'base' level, the lowest common denominator. 

Nearly 40 seasons of The Simpsons can't be wrong.

Donald Trump has run for President numerous times, but it was only via The Apprentice TV show that his schtick truly resonated with the nation, infecting tens of millions of people with his special brand of the 'vulgar, prurient and dumb'. 

His weird press conferences, shameless lies and hypocrisy, junk food obsession, narcissistic posts, bizarre rally rants, tawdry courtroom dramas and near assassinations all fed the ravenous hordes.

Losing to Biden merely proved grist for the media mill.

Regardless of whether US voters self-identified as Democrats, Republicans, multi-billionaires, teachers, SillyCon techno-optimists, professors, college kids, middle class professionals or illiterate fools - everyone was transfixed - whether in horror or ecstasy - by the Homer Simpson of politics. 

And that effect meant that he resonated with enough people to secure Homer's a Trump victory over a candidate who offered nothing vulgar, nothing prurient and nothing dumb. 

Where will it end? Or will it end at all?

The question is whether this trend has peaked, like television viewing figures did in 2010, and whether social media and streaming platforms will be disrupted the same way that their early versions disrupted TV with something that seemed more refined, aesthetic or noble - and maybe even was, until it gained critical mass. Or whether society will continue to be 'dumbed down' and end up as portrayed in the film Idiocracy.

Well, TV viewing figures may have peaked, but they haven't dropped far, despite the surge in eyeballs aimed at social media and streaming platforms.

If anything, the two types of media are working in concert, or echoing each other.

In my early posts on this site, as exemplified in Lipstick On a Pig, I used to think that Greed and Stupidity were winning, but only through our institutions - top down - while 'people power' was a force for something better. 

How wrong I was!

While it was true in 2011 - and true now - that 'Bailouts Fail and People Power Will Succeed' the problem was that 'success' meant uniting around the vulgar, prurient and dumb.

Welcome to Idiocracy.

Starmer Makes A Spectacle Of Himself

No sooner did we rid ourselves of the crony Conservatives than it turns out the Labour PM, his wife and senior ministers accepted clothing and spectacles from donors. Not to mention all the football tickets and so on.

Never mind that they declared the gifts. The point is that they thought it okay to seek or accept them in the first place - at a time when others can't afford new clothing of their own - from political donors. 

Never mind that BoJo and his cronies did far worse and without declaring it. Starmer and Reeves promised an end to all that.

And it's all so petty! 

I mean, if Britain's Prime Minister can't buy his own specs and a half decent suit, how easily could he be bought by really big donors...? 

Look for Tory rorts that never get scrapped, like freeports...

Never mind that they've ended the free-clothing practice - that merely demonstrates the greed and stupidity of doing it in the first place.

British Infrastructure Bonds and the Office of Public Infrastructure

Now that Labour has nailed its colours to the mast of that sinking ship, HMS Austerity, it's time to consider alternative ways to publicly fund the renewal and maintenance of Britain's sagging public buildings, bridges, sewerage systems and other infrastructure. A 'British Infrastructure Bond' programme, administered by a new public body, could focus on ensuring the long term availability and stability of Britain's infrastructure according to the national interest, without being distracted by the short term political issues of the day.  

As the UK government won't spend the revenue it raises through taxes and general borrowing on such things, and has privatised the operation of utilities etc in ways that did not oblige the private operators to invest for the longer term  - and probably shouldn't be trusted with the money anyway - it seems we need a dedicated 'infrastructure bond' programme to ensure that adequate funding is raised and spent where it should be. 

A 'British Infrastructure Bond' programme could be administered by the Office of Public Infrastructure, a non-departmental public body (like the Office of Budget Responsibility) with discretion in the performance of its duties, as long as those duties are performed objectively, transparently and independently and takes into account the sitting government’s policies (specifically, what public infrastructure needs and responsibilities those policies are creating, as well as failing to support). 

The OPI could also prevent a government of the day getting its filthy hands on the loot, or granting contracts to donors and cronies.

While the international money markets rightly rejected the Truss/Kwarteng 'mini-budget' to fund tax cuts, there is no reason to suggest that they would frown on a dedicated public borrowing programme to support the countries' genuine long term infrastructure needs that clearly are not being met under current tax and borrowing progammes. 

Such 'infrastructure bond' programmes are not new. Even Scotland announced it's intention to issue a dedicated infrastructure bond in October, though that seems to be very much in the early planning phase and, ironically, may have been derailed by interim political events - surely another demonstration of the yawning gap such a programme should fill.

You Pay For Social Media, AI and Crypto Via Your Utility Bills

Households consume the most electricity in the UK. That's why the huge surge in global energy prices following the expansion of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 prompted the government to invoke price caps and handouts to protect consumers (and businesses) from bankruptcy, along with private energy providers who failed to manage their market exposures. Yet few have noticed that the world's computing data centres, including those hosting artificial intelligence platforms, already consume enough energy to power entire countries and compete with humans for vast amounts of fresh water. Crypto-currencies also require huge amounts of energy to 'mine'. So, not only are you paying for many 'free' online services with your personal data, you're also paying through your energy and water bills. And based on the advertising and other revenues from your participation, Big Tech can afford to outspend you. To illustrate the challenge, the UK government just announced a massive new Microsoft AI facility in London, even as Thames Water circles the drain and lack of capacity in the UK's national grid is delaying the construction of new homes, renewable energy projects and electric vehicle charging points. Given these costs and shortages, should we be speculating in bitcoin and using generative AI (either for fun or to do things we could do for ourselves)?

How much power does the latest consumer technology use?

While consumer electronics only account for 6% of household usage, that doesn't account for the centralised data processing among digital media and gaming platforms, for example, when you participate online. As a result, households are responsible for 35% of electricity usage, services 29% and industry 30%. You might argue that much of this data centre capacity is used by businesses, but many of them do so ultimately to serve consumers - from online search, shopping and social media services to powering giant credit card networks. 

Artificial intelligence, however, operates at a whole new level above the more traditional digital media. A Netflix fan would have to have watched 1,625,000 hours of content to use the same amount of power it took to train OpenAI's ChatGPT 3.0 during 2022, according to a Dutch researcher. Generating a single image from text on other AI platforms costs the same amount in energy as charging your smartphone.

The same Dutch researcher has estimated that the AI sector alone will use as much power as the Netherlands by 2027, while the International Energy Agency predicts that the world's data centres (including AI and other digital media) will consume the double the amount of electricity in 2026 that they consumed in 2022 - about as much as Japan (the 5th largest electricity consumer in the world, behind China, the US, India and Russia).  

Bitcoin mining - an activity whose sole purpose is to feed the world's first and largest distributed Ponzi scheme - absorbed nearly 1% of the world's electricity in 2023 - enough to power Greece or Australia. That's up to 5 times the cost of legacy payment systems that process vastly more transactions (though they also use enough to electricity to power Portugal or Bangladesh).

How much water does the latest consumer technology use?

Data centres also consume vast amounts of water (not counting what they recycle) to cool the computers and humidify the internal air. But even the process of generating the electricity they use also consumes water. 

In 2021, for example, Google's data centers consumed approximately 4.3 billion gallons of water (16.3 billion litres), an average of 450,000 gallons (1.7m litres) of water per data centre each day. Microsoft reckoned that it consumed 1.7 billion gallons (nearly 6.5 billion litres) in 2022.

Gridlock

The surge in energy and water usage by future-gazing tech providers comes at a time when Britain's infrastructure is already failing to support the construction of new and more energy efficient homes, renewable energy sources and the switch away from diesel and petrol vehicles.

“Nationally, we’ve got an absolute ­crisis in all infrastructure.” Plans by Michael Gove, the housing secretary, to build 150,000 homes in Cambridge to create a British Silicon Valley were already being hampered by lack of water... “And where’s the power coming from? Something fundamental has to change...”

"...90 new homes in the Littlemore district had been meant to have heat pumps. “The National Grid basically said ‘we won’t have enough power to connect them’ so half the houses are going to have to have gas boilers instead – it’s so frustrating. 

Great Britain’s power stations together generate 75 gigawatts of electricity, and the mainland is expected to need about twice as much by 2050 as people switch to ­electric vehicles and heat pumps.” The Guardian

Dissatisfaction with Britain's electric vehicle charging network is running at about 70% of EV drivers, citing a lack of public charging stations and unreliability. The government is targeting 300,000 charging stations by 2030, with only 53,677 available at the start of 2024 (an increase of 45% in 12 months) and the majority to be provided by private investors.

Meanwhile, Britain's water problems flow partly from the risk of drought and party from its combined sewage system which takes rainwater through the same pipes as the grey water from sinks and baths, as well as the raw sewage from toilets. Any excess of rainwater simply overloads the sewerage system of pipes that normally takes sewage to local treatment works, and the overflow goes directly into the waterways... 

Crisis? What Crisis?

Who's to blame for Britain's sagging infrastructure involves lots of finger-pointing and misinformation. 

When challenged over delays to connect new systems to the electricity grid, the National Grid's system operator complains that the queue of projects waiting to connect would add 800 gigawatts of electricity - "more than more than four times as much as the country would ever need." There are even delays in the time it takes to get an estimate of when a project will be connected, as well as 'zombie projects' that were approved but have been abandoned due to connection waiting times of 5 to 15 years.

Yet this hides the fact that more renewable projects/systems will be necessary to reduce Britain's reliance on fossil fuels, since energy systems that generate electricity from solar and wind don't all contribute to the grid at the same time, unlike a gas-fired or coal-fired power station where the energy source to create the electricity is under human control. 

As for water - well, none of England’s rivers is classified as being in good ecological health and Britain is already failing to produce enough fresh water to meet its needs year round. The country's 'combined sewage system' should be replaced by separate systems for rainwater and sewage, yet modernisation efforts have merely doubled-down on the combined system.

UK Government Distracted by Culture Wars

Britain's energy sector is self-evidently poorly prepared for the future. Here is a good description of the alphabet soup of bodies involved and the problem of every additional significant energy system creating the need for some change in part of the network. Here's a good overview of the challenges facing sewerage reform and here is a discussion of drought risk.

There is undoubtedly a need for reforms and there are plenty that have been announced with targets of, say, 2035 and 2050, but where are the plans that had a target of, say, 2023? And if we had them, why weren't they being updated?

It's hardly surprising that a country with 5 prime ministers in 8 years and as many Cabinet reshuffles has failed to find the time or dedication required to overhaul the energy sector and water industry. Too much control over the maintenance and renewal of Britain's creaking infrastructure has been left to private interests. Had the income from customer bills gone into public coffers instead of draining into investors' pockets, it might have been a different story - or at least the money might have been used to bolster the many other public services that are in such a dire state. 

Choices, Choices

All this brings us back to scarcity and the need to make careful choices over how we develop, protect and deploy our energy and water resources. This is largely a question of politics and intervention by a responsible government to balance out the many competing interests. Areas in which Brexit Britain has been - and continues to be - very poorly served. 

It must be doubted that a new government will be able to make much progress after 15 years of under-investment and poor decision-making by its predecessors.

In these circumstances, it seems unwise to devote enormous amounts of power and water to mine bitcoin for speculative purposes or to support generative AI systems that are either used merely for entertainment or to render people jobless (if the hype is to be believed). 

Certainly cash-strapped consumers should think about their utility bills and water shortages before speculating in bitcoin, playing online games or using open AI systems for entertainment or to do things that they could do for themselves.